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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the country's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The contest has become an acrimonious showdown, laced with accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a platform of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has outpaced his rival by significant margins in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the party perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable comeback win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of cautious, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate directly. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to the capital and warned to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd