Rising Rhetorical Battle Between Ethiopia and Eritrean Government Sparks Anxieties of Armed Clash

Growing concerns have emerged regarding the chance of armed conflict among East African neighbours, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as confrontational language has intensified in the past few weeks.

Horn of Africa region
The Ethiopian government and The Eritrean government worked together in the civil war in northern Ethiopia but they have later become estranged.

What Has Ethiopia Said?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for entry to the maritime outlet through Eritrean territory has provoked a intense rhetorical conflict.

The Ethiopian leader initially stated publicly in the previous year that his country's sea access was an vital issue, remarks that Eritrea dismissed.

Relations between the both governments have often been tense. After a decades-long battle for independence, Eritrea, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) maritime frontage, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, making it cut off from the sea.

In 1998, a territorial conflict broke out in which more than 100,000 people lost their lives.

Recent Remarks from Ethiopian Leadership

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted control of Eritrean coastal city of Assab – about 60km from the border - and implied the wish to seize it militarily.

In early September, the Prime Minister said the country's "error" of losing entry to the Red Sea as a because of Eritrea's separation would be "corrected soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be restored "using武力".

Eritrea's Answer to the Statements

In the face of continuous challenges from Ethiopian officials, Asmara's position has been restricted to short statements on online platforms from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

He has rejected Ethiopia's demand for maritime entry labeling it "dangerous" and a "negative policy" of "irredentism" – a policy of claiming back lost territory.

The information ministry warned on mid-September that attempts to validate "obvious provocation" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its regional partners and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Movements on the Border

There have been little evidence of large-scale army activities in the border areas between the two countries.

Nonetheless, in the country, government media has displayed training completions of many recruits at multiple army bases.

The leader of human resources department of the military, General Hachalu, recently said in an conversation that the army was in a "strong stance" as "numerous of young people" were joining it, which he said was "a message to our opponents".

Past Origins of the Conflict

For over fifty years from the late 19th century, Eritrea was ruled by Italian rulers.

Following Italy's defeat, it was then administered by the UK forces before turning into a federated part of Ethiopia.

But in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I cancelled this agreement and the region became fully incorporated into the Ethiopian state.

A three-decade long armed struggle followed, ending with military reversal in 1991. Sovereignty was then endorsed by Eritreans in a referendum in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the leadership in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they fell out over the exact location of their common border, leading to conflict in 1998.

Although this ended in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the neighbors continued at in dispute.

This situation improved in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The two endorsed a statement that the war was finished – a action that earned Abiy the prestigious award.

The two governments were then allies in the country's 2020-2022 armed struggle in the northern region.

But relations have later worsened anew.

Gary Wiggins
Gary Wiggins

A seasoned commercial pilot with over 15 years of experience, sharing insights on aviation safety and industry trends.